A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
